What to Believe?

by Rob Kolstad

Dr. Rob Kolstad works as program manager organizing computer security conferences. Longtime editor of ;login:, he is also head coach of the USENIX-sponsored USA Computing Olympiad.

<kolstad@usenix.org>


I've been hit hard this week by various pieces of information that have me reeling. What does one believe?

The FBI announced that maybe they did, after all, use a couple of incendiary cylinders at Waco. They weren't used near the ultimate fires in the main building but in a different building altogether. Wish they'd mentioned that earlier.

Top scientists have announced that maybe some other mechanism can cause AIDS besides the HIV-1 virus. Furthermore, it might have something to do with that old polio vaccine thing from the '60s and its simian virus, SV40. This has been "conspiracy theory" fodder for years. Now it turns out that just maybe there is strong basis in fact.

On the same day that the previous two items appeared in newspapers, word came that top security researchers announced (at a USENIX symposium!) the discovery of a variable in the cryptographic API for Windows operating systems (of all flavors) with the name "_NSAKEY." Speculation abounds.

I have been a real non-believer in conspiracy theories. I really think that Oswald acted alone. I have every confidence in NASA's ability to land people on the moon. Fidel Castro is just a guy with an amazingly strong set of political skills. The World Bank is controlled by . . . bankers.

But, thrice in one day I was hammered with revelations. I think it's extraordinarily difficult to carry around a few bits of "confidence data" on information one receives. "Well," your mind would catalog, "I heard that from Joe and he's 87% reliable, so I'll color that fact as probably true." Oh my. That would use up far more memory and processing than my little brain could ever produce. I fear that upgrades are too expensive, too (those new smart mice notwithstanding).

Little wonder that so many of our fellow world citizens are very skeptical about what they hear and read. I hear from colleagues in Europe who regard the U.S. government's actions in Kosovo as nothing short of a prelude to invasion of the rest of Europe. I'd like to tell them, "Oh, no, our government wouldn't do that." I'm pretty sure. I wish I were 100% sure.

I see people whose actions are mysterious to me. Are they trying to be clever and use some sort of strange political machinations to accomplish private yet nefarious aims? Heck, I don't know. I don't even know how to find out.

I really like trust. It's important to me. I try to be trustworthy.

But these last few days have harrowed me. Whom do you trust?